As this year’s presidential election has clearly shown, victory is only achievable through a strategic, broad based cross-regional support for any candidate running on a truly national party, Deputy Editor of the Nation, Emmanuel Oladosu reports.
The lessons of the February 25 presidential elections are very instructive. No discerning politician or political party can ignore them without severe consequences on poll day.
In Nigeria, a heterogenous country divided into five diverse, unequal but politically potent geo-political zones, no presidential candidate can triumph during elections without the collaboration of, at least, three zones.
In the Second Republic, the aborted Third Republic and the current Fourth Republic, presidential victory has often reflected national diversity and spread. While the factors of ethnicity and religion cannot be discarded, no candidate can hope to win by solely and exclusively leaning on the numerical strength of a single ethnic group, no matter how cohesive the tribe appears to be, or on a lone religious pillar.
Three of the four presidential candidates-Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP)-tried to meet the criterion of spread in varying degrees.
However, only President-elect Tinubu satisfied the condition more than others.
In his native Southwest, he won four of the six states-Oyo, Ondo, Ogun and Ekiti. Oyo gave him 449,884 votes, which was the highest in the zone.
Oyo is a PDP state governed by Seyi Makinde, an engineer and member of aggrieved G-5 Governors locked in deep rift with Atiku and National Chairman Iyorchia Ayu. The shift in voting pattern in the state may have been due to overtures made to the state party leadership by the APC.
Although Tinubu surprisingly lost in Lagos and Osun, which were won by Atiku, he won in four Northern Central states of Kwara, Kogi, Benue and Niger. He lost in Plateau and Nasarawa.
Many observers did not pay adequate attention to Benue ahead of the poll. The PDP chapter was divided. Governor Sam Ortom, a G5 member, supported Obi, but Ayu was with Atiku. There is no division in Benue APC under the leadership of Senator George Akume, Special Duties Minister. The governorship candidate, a Catholic priest, is also a vital asset. Tinubu got 310,468 votes in the state as against Atiku’s 130, 081.
In Northcentral,Tinubu was the leader with his 1,760,977 votes. He was trailed by Atiku, who got 1,162,087. Obi scored 1,415,557 votes.
But, Obi, in his own right, is also a hero of the contest. He snatched Plateau and Nasarawa from Tinubu and Atiku.
Tinubu scored more votes in Northcentral than Atiku. The magic in the three zones of the North was the governors’ backing for zoning, rotation or power shift.
Tinubu’s votes also spread across the Northwest, made up of seven states. The APC standard bearer, who won in Jigawa and Zamfara, made very impressive showing in Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Kaduna, and most especially Kano.
Atiku, who won in Kaduna, Kebbi, Katsina and Sokoto, still scored less than Tinubu in Northwest.
In the Northwest, Atiku got 2,329,540 while Tinubu who only won in Kebbi and Jigawa got 2,652,235 votes. What assisted Tinubu greatly was Kano’s 517,341 votes. Atiku came third with 131,716.
The bulk of Kano votes, 997,279, went to the candidate of the New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP), Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso. But, according to analysts, they were wasted. The candidate did not win beyond Kano. The former governor of Kano did not really appeal to other Northwest states.
It is also noteworthy that Obi was rejected in the Northwest. He got 350, 182 votes, a far cry from the feats recorded by Atiku and Tinubu.
The analysis of the voting pattern in the Northwest shows that while Tinubu came first in Jigawa and Zamfara, he came second in Sokoto, Katsina, Kebbi, and Kaduna.
Northeast:
The Northeast was perceived as Atiku’s stronghold. He lived to expectation in Adamawa, his home state, where he got 417,611 votes. He also led in Gombe, Bauchi, Yobe and Taraba. APC came second in the region, although Tinubu only won in Borno. He came second in Yobe and Bauchi.
Between past and present:
Tinubu’s feat across the six regions was not a departure from the ill-fated Third Republic experience of the winner of the annulled June 12, 1993 poll, the late billionaire businessman Chief Moshood Abiola of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP). Abiola’s victory, almost 30 years ago, and just like now, was a product of bridge-building across zones.
The picture contrasts sharply with the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo’s experience in the First and Second republics. Although a brilliant politician, Awo’s Action Group (AG) could not fly in federal election because it was, to a large extent, Western Nigerian-based. Under the Westminster model, Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe’s National Council of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC), which was domiciled in the Eastern Region, and the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC) of Sir Ahmadu Bello and Alhaji Tafawa Balewa, which dominated the Northern Region, teamed up in the Federal Parliament to form a national government.
In the Second Republic, a similar scenario was enacted. Then, Nigeria was made up of 19 states. The late Alhaji Shehu Shagari of the defunct National Party of Nigeria (NPN) had majority support in the North(Sokoto, Niger, Benue, Bauchi, Gongola, and in the South-Cross River and Rivers. He had 12 two third of 19. Awo’s Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN)only won in five states of Oyo, Ondo, Ogun, Bendel and Lagos. Zik’s Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) won in Imo, Anambra and Plateau. The NPN/NPP accord meant essentially that two regions collaborated to form the government.
Spread:
Why Tinubu’s vote spread is more outstanding is that apart from maintaining a lead in the Southwest, Northcentral and Northwest, he also came second in the Northeast, Southeast and Southsouth. He could never have relied on Southwest vote alone. The support he garnered outside his native zone became more important. His party did well in terms of plurality.
In contrast, Atiku only won in his native Northeast, where Tinubu also rivalled him.
Southeast:
Southeast was the stronghold of PDP before the Obi phenomenon. But, the table turned against the party. LP was the clear leader, despite its lack of structure. Obi’s structure is the emotion of his fanatical followers. Thus, he polled 1,960,589 votes.
Surprisingly, APC also beat PDP. While APC secured 127,605 votes, PDP got 91,198 votes.
There are puzzles: did APC and PDP members dump their parties for LP? What mobilisation did PDP, in particular, do in Abia and Imo, and APC in Ebonyi and Imo, where APC governors hold sway?
Southsouth:
Obi got the highest vote in the Southsouth- 1,210,675, defeating Atiku, who got 717,909 and Tinubu, who scored 799,957. This is also curious, the zone being the stronghold of the PDP. But, PDP trailed behind LP and APC.
Kwankwaso:
Kwankwaso had served as House of Representatives Deputy Speaker, governor and minister. But, he was not really in the presidential really. His platform was weak. His involvement in the historic contest was to the detriment of both PDP and APC. But, not being able to penetrate other zones, his candidature could not fly. He is a credible politician and lover of his Kano people.
Tinubu:
Tinubu was more prepared. A democrat and more matured politician, he is a crowd puller. He has a knack for offering credible leadership.
A household name since he was elected senator in the Third Republic, he was a notable pro-democracy crusader. He was the ‘opposition leader’ between 2003 and 2015, bold, brave and fearless.
The president-elect had collaborated in the past with Atiku in the defunct Action Congress (AC) and APC, and Kwankwaso at the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF) and APC.
Tinubu has a reputation for thriving in adversity. How he usually triumphed over vicissitudes of life, and politics, was an act of God.
He had spread his tentacles to the six zones. He had built bridges. He may have started the journey to Aso Villa, since he was governor of Lagos between 1999 and 2007. He told Nigerians that it was his long life ambition to serve the country.
Tinubu had honed his skills of dialogue and persuasion, consensus building, tolerance, accommodation, and ‘give and take.’ His greatest attribute is forgiving spirit.
Unlike Southwest leaders of first and second republics, the President-elect is principled, but not rigid. He had make sacrifices in the past for his political family to survive. In 2007, Tinubu had to forgo his senatorial ambition. His loyalist, Ganiyu Solomon, a member of House of Representatives, became the Lagos West senatorial candidate. He won.
A believer in consultation, debate and power of ideas, Tinubu can hardly stay alone for five minutes, except he is sleeping. He is a powerful organiser, mobiliser, thinker and strategist.
But, he lost his base to Obi at the presidential election. What was responsible?
The kingmaker went to Abuja to get the ultimate crown; federal power. He was absent from home. Also, his disciple, Senator Adeola Solomon, fondly called Yayi by admirers, had relocated to Ogun State where he ran for the Senate and won. Was that why Alimoso fell in the battle?
As predicted by commentators, the flawed Naira redesign and fuel scarcity took their tolls in cosmopolitan Lagos. The youths rebelled. Party members, supporters and other residents refused to vote. There were aloofness and apathy. Some Christians refused to be pacified. Detractors intensified their propaganda in the social media. It was effective.
Yet, the presidential election results never predicted the outcome of National Assembly elections. The three senators and many House of Representatives candidates were returned elected.
Atiku:
The former vice president is a veteran. But, his experience was not properly deployed. Although he had support outside his Northwest zone, it was inadequate.
His mismanagement of the G5 crisis contributed to his defeat. It cost him victory in Oyo and Rivers, the base of the arrowhead, Governor Nyesom Wike.
G5 demanded Ayu’s resignation. It was ignored. To observers, the governors were more of electoral assets than the national chairman, who at the end could not deliver his state.
Obi:
Obi, until he hurriedly borrowed LP as platform, he was a PDP chieftain. His participation made PDP to lose vital support in the Southeast and Southsouth. Ultimately, Obi’s ambition greatly assisted Tinubu.
Many factors also accounted for Obi’s rising profile. He suddenly became the idol of the youths. He also leaned on the factor of ethnicity. Indeed, religion was also exploited as a tool.
Obi mounted a divisive campaign that was effective, but marginally successful. He took the polity by storm without a formidable structure, winning the highest number of votes from Southsouth states of Edo, Delta andCross River, and Southeast states of Anambra, Enugu, Ebonyi, Imo and Abia.
He was making a point in the Southeast. This is Igboland. No other candidate could penetrate the region. Those who also voted for Obi outside Southeast, particularly in Lagos, Nasarawa, Kaduna and Jos were majorly Igbo, and some Christians.
Instructively, when Obi stormed Lagos for campaigns, he only visited Igbo-dominated areas like Alaba Market, Trade Fair Complex, and spare parts market in Matori, Mushin.
But, Obi could not achieve the required spread.
The lesson remains instructive. Home support without effective partnership and collaboration with other regions cannot lead to the actualisation of presidential ambition in Nigeria.
THE NATION.
